01 · PRICES
The price of breakfast
Eggs, coffee, bacon — what the morning costs now versus 2019.
EGGS138COFFEE227BACON119MILK148GROUND BEEF180indexed · 100 = 2019-01
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02 · LABOR × PRICES
Did your raise beat inflation?
Wage growth ran below inflation for two years — then flipped back.
AVG HOURLY EARNINGS+3.5%CPI+3.5%% chg vs. year ago
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03 · HOUSING
The affordability squeeze
Home prices and mortgage rates outran paychecks after 2021.
30Y MORTGAGE148CASE-SHILLER160MEDIAN SALE PRICE131MEDIAN WEEKLY PAY140indexed · 100 = 2019-01
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04 · PRICES
Groceries vs. restaurants
Food-at-home cooled off. Eating out kept climbing.
GROCERIES+3.0%DINING OUT+3.4%% chg vs. year ago
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05 · POLICY
What the Fed sees
Core inflation, the funds rate, the 2-year, and the jobless rate — one glance.
CORE PCE YOY+3.3%FED FUNDS3.632Y TREASURY4.23UNEMPLOYMENT4.2percent
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06 · LABOR
Hiring, quitting, opening
The Great Resignation arc: openings and quits boomed, then faded to normal.
OPENINGS113QUITS RATE83HIRES RATE85indexed · 100 = 2019-12
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07 · SPENDING
The pandemic goods binge
Locked-down America bought things, not experiences — then swung back.
DURABLE GOODS156NONDURABLES147SERVICES149indexed · 100 = 2020-01
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08 · SIGNALS
Recession watch
The yield curve and the Sahm rule — the two most-watched warning lights.
10Y–2Y SPREAD0.47SAHM RULE0.07percentage points
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09 · HOUSING
The frozen market
Listings collapsed in the pandemic and still haven't fully come back.
ACTIVE LISTINGS89DAYS ON MARKET93LIST $/SQFT150indexed · 100 = 2019-07
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10 · HOUSING
Rent vs. own
Home prices swing hard; rent ratchets up and almost never falls.
HOME PRICES+1.1%RENT CPI+2.8%% chg vs. year ago
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11 · ENERGY
Pain at the pump
Gasoline tracks crude down to the dollar — with a sticky markup on the way back.
REGULAR GAS183WTI CRUDE170indexed · 100 = 2019-01
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12 · ENERGY
The utility bill ratchet
Spot natural gas round-tripped its 2022 spike. Your electric bill never came back down.
NAT GAS SPOT101ELECTRICITY147HEATING OIL225indexed · 100 = 2019-01
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13 · MONEY
Money printer, then brakes
M2 grew 27% in a year — then shrank for the first time on record.
M2 MONEY SUPPLY+5.5%% chg vs. year ago
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