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PRESIDENTIAL SCOREBOARD

U.S. economic performance by presidential term, Truman ’49 → today — six FRED metrics, annualized for comparability, graded on the postwar curve. The term in progress is shown but not graded.

hover any chart to cross-highlight · click to pin · esc to clear

attribution

inauguration → inauguration — exactly what happened on each watch, inherited crises included

top of class

KENNEDY/JOHNSON · A-

GPA 3.82 · ’61–’65

bottom of class

OBAMA I · C-

GPA 1.50 · ’09–’13

dem average

3.06

GPA across 9 graded terms

gop average

2.39

GPA across 10 graded terms

THE SIX METRICS

one bar per term, chronological · amber rule = postwar median · measured on the watch

REAL GDP%/yrcompound annual growth, chained 2017$

PAYROLLS%/yrnonfarm payrolls, compound annual growth

UNEMPLOYMENTpprate change, inauguration → exit

INFLATION%/yrCPI, compound annual rate

REAL WAGES%/yrreal hourly compensation, annual growth

DEBT/GDPpp/yrfederal debt as % of GDP, change per year (from 1966)

TERM TRAJECTORIES

small multiples · every term re-based at its own inauguration · x = months in office

DEMGOP

PAYROLLSjobs · 100 = inauguration

PRICESCPI · 100 = inauguration

UNEMPLOYMENTpp change vs inauguration

REAL GDPreal GDP · 100 = inauguration

REAL WAGESreal compensation · 100 = inauguration

READING THESE

Each line is one term, indexed to 100 (or 0pp) the day it began — level differences across eras cancel out, so only the paths compare.

Hover any panel to identify a term everywhere on the page; click to pin it, esc to clear. Labels mark the best and worst four-year finishers; the in-progress term simply stops where the data does.

Payrolls and prices compound monthly; GDP and wages are quarterly. The COVID cliff in payrolls (month 38, Trump ’17–’21) is the sharpest one-term swing on record.

REPORT CARDS

graded on the curve of the 19 postwar terms · percentile → letter

TRUMANDEM ’49–’53

Harry S. Truman

A-3.72 · #2/19

REAL GDPA++5.5

PAYROLLSA+2.9

UNEMPB+-1.4

INFLATIONB+2.6

REAL WAGESA+3.3

DEBT/GDP–n/a

EISENHOWER IGOP ’53–’57

Dwight D. Eisenhower

B+3.18 · #5/19

REAL GDPB-+2.9

PAYROLLSC++1.3

UNEMPC++1.3

INFLATIONA++1.0

REAL WAGESA++3.8

DEBT/GDP–n/a

EISENHOWER IIGOP ’57–’61

Dwight D. Eisenhower

C+2.34 · #14/19

REAL GDPC-+2.1

PAYROLLSC+0.4

UNEMPD+2.4

INFLATIONA-+1.9

REAL WAGESB++2.0

DEBT/GDP–n/a

KENNEDY/JOHNSONDEM ’61–’65

John F. Kennedy · Lyndon B. Johnson

A-3.82 · #1/19

REAL GDPA+5.3

PAYROLLSA-+2.6

UNEMPA--1.7

INFLATIONA+1.2

REAL WAGESA-+2.4

DEBT/GDP–n/a

Kennedy assassinated Nov '63; Johnson completed the term

JOHNSONDEM ’65–’69

Lyndon B. Johnson

A-3.60 · #3/19

REAL GDPA+5.1

PAYROLLSA++3.9

UNEMPA--1.5

INFLATIONC++3.4

REAL WAGESA-+2.6

DEBT/GDP–n/a

NIXONGOP ’69–’73

Richard Nixon

B2.88 · #9/19

REAL GDPB++3.3

PAYROLLSB+2.2

UNEMPC+1.5

INFLATIONC+4.6

REAL WAGESB++1.8

DEBT/GDPA--0.8

NIXON/FORDGOP ’73–’77

Richard Nixon · Gerald Ford

C1.88 · #17/19

REAL GDPC+2.2

PAYROLLSB-+1.6

UNEMPF+2.6

INFLATIOND+8.3

REAL WAGESC++0.7

DEBT/GDPB++0.0

Nixon resigned Aug '74; Ford completed the term

CARTERDEM ’77–’81

Jimmy Carter

B-2.62 · #10/19

REAL GDPB+3.2

PAYROLLSA+3.1

UNEMPB0.0

INFLATIONF+10.4

REAL WAGESC+0.5

DEBT/GDPA--0.7

REAGAN IGOP ’81–’85

Ronald Reagan

C+2.38 · #13/19

REAL GDPB++3.3

PAYROLLSC++1.4

UNEMPB-0.2

INFLATIONC-+4.9

REAL WAGESC-+0.4

DEBT/GDPC++2.2

REAGAN IIGOP ’85–’89

Ronald Reagan

B3.12 · #6/19

REAL GDPA-+3.8

PAYROLLSA-+2.7

UNEMPA--1.9

INFLATIONC++3.5

REAL WAGESB+1.7

DEBT/GDPC++2.4

BUSH 41GOP ’89–’93

George H. W. Bush

C2.02 · #15/19

REAL GDPC+2.2

PAYROLLSC+0.6

UNEMPC-+1.9

INFLATIONC+4.2

REAL WAGESB-+1.1

DEBT/GDPC-+3.2

CLINTON IDEM ’93–’97

Bill Clinton

B3.00 · #8/19

REAL GDPA-+3.3

PAYROLLSB++2.5

UNEMPA-2.0

INFLATIONB-+2.8

REAL WAGESD-0.4

DEBT/GDPB++0.5

CLINTON IIDEM ’97–’01

Bill Clinton

A-3.60 · #4/19

REAL GDPA-+4.3

PAYROLLSB++2.3

UNEMPB+-1.1

INFLATIONB++2.4

REAL WAGESA-+3.1

DEBT/GDPA+-2.5

BUSH 43 IGOP ’01–’05

George W. Bush

B-2.50 · #12/19

REAL GDPC++2.4

PAYROLLSD+0.0

UNEMPC++1.1

INFLATIONA-+2.2

REAL WAGESB+1.4

DEBT/GDPB-+1.6

BUSH 43 IIGOP ’05–’09

George W. Bush

C-1.67 · #18/19

REAL GDPF+1.3

PAYROLLSC-+0.2

UNEMPD+2.5

INFLATIONB+2.6

REAL WAGESC++0.8

DEBT/GDPC+3.2

OBAMA IDEM ’09–’13

Barack Obama

C-1.50 · #19/19

REAL GDPD+1.5

PAYROLLSD+0.2

UNEMPB-+0.2

INFLATIONB++2.3

REAL WAGESD+0.0

DEBT/GDPF+6.7

OBAMA IIDEM ’13–’17

Barack Obama

B3.10 · #7/19

REAL GDPC++2.5

PAYROLLSB+1.9

UNEMPA+-3.3

INFLATIONA+1.3

REAL WAGESC+0.6

DEBT/GDPB+1.1

TRUMPGOP ’17–’21

Donald Trump

C1.95 · #16/19

REAL GDPD+1.9

PAYROLLSF-0.5

UNEMPC+1.7

INFLATIONA-+1.9

REAL WAGESA+3.1

DEBT/GDPD+5.2

BIDENDEM ’21–’25

Joe Biden

B-2.62 · #11/19

REAL GDPB+3.2

PAYROLLSA-+2.6

UNEMPA-2.4

INFLATIOND+5.0

REAL WAGESF-0.6

DEBT/GDPA-1.0

TRUMP IIGOP ’25–’29

Donald Trump

·in progress

REAL GDP–+2.0

PAYROLLS–+0.3

UNEMP–+0.3

INFLATION–+3.5

REAL WAGES–+1.0

DEBT/GDP–+0.9

Term in progress — annualized through the latest data, not graded

DATA TABLE

all values, chronological — the numbers behind every chart

TERM	YEARS	REAL GDP%/yr	PAYROLLS%/yr	UNEMPLOYMENTpp	INFLATION%/yr	REAL WAGES%/yr	DEBT/GDPpp/yr	GPA	GRADE	RANK
TRUMAN	’49–’53	+5.5A+	+2.9A	-1.4B+	+2.6B	+3.3A	·	3.72	A-	#2
EISENHOWER I	’53–’57	+2.9B-	+1.3C+	+1.3C+	+1.0A+	+3.8A+	·	3.18	B+	#5
EISENHOWER II	’57–’61	+2.1C-	+0.4C	+2.4D	+1.9A-	+2.0B+	·	2.34	C+	#14
KENNEDY/JOHNSON	’61–’65	+5.3A	+2.6A-	-1.7A-	+1.2A	+2.4A-	·	3.82	A-	#1
JOHNSON	’65–’69	+5.1A	+3.9A+	-1.5A-	+3.4C+	+2.6A-	·	3.60	A-	#3
NIXON	’69–’73	+3.3B+	+2.2B	+1.5C	+4.6C	+1.8B+	-0.8A-	2.88	B	#9
NIXON/FORD	’73–’77	+2.2C	+1.6B-	+2.6F	+8.3D	+0.7C+	+0.0B+	1.88	C	#17
CARTER	’77–’81	+3.2B	+3.1A	0.0B	+10.4F	+0.5C	-0.7A-	2.62	B-	#10
REAGAN I	’81–’85	+3.3B+	+1.4C+	-0.2B	+4.9C-	+0.4C-	+2.2C+	2.38	C+	#13
REAGAN II	’85–’89	+3.8A-	+2.7A-	-1.9A-	+3.5C+	+1.7B	+2.4C+	3.12	B	#6
BUSH 41	’89–’93	+2.2C	+0.6C	+1.9C-	+4.2C	+1.1B-	+3.2C-	2.02	C	#15
CLINTON I	’93–’97	+3.3A-	+2.5B+	-2.0A	+2.8B-	-0.4D	+0.5B+	3.00	B	#8
CLINTON II	’97–’01	+4.3A-	+2.3B+	-1.1B+	+2.4B+	+3.1A-	-2.5A+	3.60	A-	#4
BUSH 43 I	’01–’05	+2.4C+	+0.0D	+1.1C+	+2.2A-	+1.4B	+1.6B-	2.50	B-	#12
BUSH 43 II	’05–’09	+1.3F	+0.2C-	+2.5D	+2.6B	+0.8C+	+3.2C	1.67	C-	#18
OBAMA I	’09–’13	+1.5D	+0.2D	+0.2B-	+2.3B+	+0.0D	+6.7F	1.50	C-	#19
OBAMA II	’13–’17	+2.5C+	+1.9B	-3.3A+	+1.3A	+0.6C	+1.1B	3.10	B	#7
TRUMP	’17–’21	+1.9D	-0.5F	+1.7C	+1.9A-	+3.1A	+5.2D	1.95	C	#16
BIDEN	’21–’25	+3.2B	+2.6A-	-2.4A	+5.0D	-0.6F	-1.0A	2.62	B-	#11
TRUMP II	’25–’29	+2.0	+0.3	+0.3	+3.5	+1.0	+0.9	–	–	IP